1. How Are The New Flixes Going To Fare?
The most pressing question for the TV industry next year is how the three new “Flixes”—Disney+, “WarnerFlix” and “AppleFlix” —will fare once they launch. (If indeed they do launch. There’s no guarantee that all three will be live in 2019, versus 2020.)
There are a number of unanswered questions around all of them:
How much will subscriptions cost?
Will they use a hybrid ad supported subscription model with both ad-free and ad-lite versions at different price points?
Will there be a notable increase in the amount of churn among all six Flixes as viewers flit from service to service?
Will the new Flixes release all episodes at once. or keep to a more traditional once-a-week schedule?
And the biggest two questions of all:
Will any of their shows become massive hits?
How many subscribers will they pick up in 2019 and will any of them surpass Netflix, Amazon or Hulu (at least in the U.S.)?
My Take: Pricing will be competitive with Netflix (around $12 for the ad-free service), and while Disney and Warner will use a two-tier pricing model, Apple will remain ad-free. Churn rates will indeed be massive, as viewers flit from service to service to binge watch the latest “must see” shows. Disney and Warner will stick to weekly release schedules while Apple will do the all-at-once thing. Disney, with its familiar, family-friendly programming is in the best position to gain the most subscribers, but with billions of dollars of original programming rolling out, much of it will get lost in the shuffle as viewers are overwhelmed by the amount of choices they now have and begin tuning most of the promotional advertising out.